Analysts expect 2.5% increase in Russian GDP in 2023, inflation at 7% - CBR survey

MOSCOW. Oct 19 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP may grow 2.5% in 2023, analysts surveyed by the Central Bank said during a monthly survey (the survey was conducted on October 13-17).

Compared to the Central Bank survey in September, the consensus forecast for GDP dynamics improved. In September, economists were expecting economic growth in 2023 of 2.2%.

The consensus forecast for 2023 inflation has also increased; experts now expect 7.0%, while in September they were predicting 6.3%.

The survey results are the median of forecasts of 28 economists from various organizations, the Central Bank said. If the respondent gave his expectations as an interval, then its middle was taken into account for the calculation.

The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by the Central Bank for Russian GDP growth in 2024 did not change from 1.5% (same as in the September survey), It also remained the same for 2025 GDP growth, at 1.5% (1.5% in September).

The inflation consensus for 2024 increased significantly to 5.1% from 4.5% in the previous survey. Analysts expect inflation to return to the target of 4.0% only in 2025.

As reported, the Russian Central Bank on September 15 maintained its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2023 at 1.5-2.5%. At the same time, the Central Bank lowered the upper limit of the interval forecast for GDP growth in Russia for 2024 - now the forecast is 0.5-1.5% versus 0.5-2.5% in the July version.

On September 15, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2023 to 6.0-7.0% from 5.0-6.5%, while maintaining the forecast of 4.0% for 2024. Deputy CBR Chairman Alexei Zabotkin, in an interview with Interfax last week, said that inflation is still closer to the upper limit of the Central Bank's forecast for 2023.

Analysts also revised their forecast towards a weaker ruble over the entire horizon. The forecast of the average annual dollar exchange rate for 2023 is 86.0 rubles, assuming an average exchange rate in October - December 2023 of 96.0 rubles per dollar; for 2024, the average rate is forecast at 94.0 rubles (versus 89.9 rubles in the September survey); for 2025 - 97.5 rubles (90.8 rubles forecast in September), and for 2026, 98.2 rubles is forecast. (92.0 rubles forecast in September.).

The Central Bank will present its updated forecast based on the results of the board of directors on the key rate on October 27.