Rosstat confirms estimate that Russia's GDP shrank 3.7% in Q3

MOSCOW. Jan 9 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP contracted by 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022 after shrinking by 4.1% in the second quarter and growing by 3.5% in the first quarter, the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in a statement on the use of GDP in the third quarter.

Rosstat has thus confirmed its previous estimate that GDP fell 3.7% in the third quarter, made using the production method.

GDP totalled 36.829 trillion rubles in the third quarter, the agency said. "The physical volume of GDP shrank by 3.7% compared to the same quarter of [2021]; the deflator, accordingly, rose by 11.7%," Rosstat said.

Final consumption expenditure slipped to 66.1% of GDP in the third quarter from 66.3% a year earlier, with household expenditure dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 48.1% from 48.9% and government expenditure growing to 17.6% from 16.9%. Expenditure by non-profit institutions serving households edged down to 0.4% from 0.5%.

Gross accumulation remained unchanged year-on-year at 23.5% of GDP, as gross capital formation grew to 20.1% from 18.7%, while changes in inventories shrank to 3.4% from 4.8%.

Net exports (exports less imports) edged up to 10.4% of GDP in the third quarter of 2022 from 10.2% a year earlier.

Rosstat estimated that Russia's GDP contracted by 1.6% in the first nine months of 2022.

President Vladimir Putin said in mid-December that the contraction of Russia's GDP this year might be less than the government's earlier forecasts and amount to about 2.5%.

The Economic Development Ministry's official forecast projects that GDP will contract by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023, but grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 2025.

The Central Bank of Russia's October forecast for 2022-2025 projects that GDP will shrink by 3-3.5% in 2022 and by 1-4% in 2022, and then grow by 1.5-2% in 2024-2025.

However, Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina said in mid-December that the contraction might turn out to be close to 3% or even less than 3% this year, depending on the dynamic in November and December.

The consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax at the end of December projected that GDP would shrink by 2.7% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.