Growth of cash in circulation in Oct 2026 slowed for third month in row to lowest since February - Central Bank of Russia

MOSCOW. Nov 2 (Interfax) - The amount of cash in circulation increased by 209.4 billion rubles in October 2026, which is 43.5% less than in September (370.9 billion rubles), according to data on the website of the Central Bank of Russia.

Increased demand for cash was recorded in 2026 (after the traditional seasonal decline in January by 386.2 billion rubles) starting from February, when its level increased by 180.2 billion rubles, then in March it grew by 285.1 billion rubles, in April by 607.3 billion rubles, in May by 381.2 billion rubles, in June by 449.7 billion rubles, in July by 643.4 billion rubles, in August by 434.0 billion rubles and in September by 370.9 billion rubles.

The October increase in cash in circulation was the lowest since February. The annual maximum was passed in July, after which demand has been declining for three months; the October figure is more than three times less than the July one.

Taking into account the October figure, the flow of money into cash in February-October amounted to 3.561 trillion rubles; the monthly average fell to 395.7 billion rubles after 419.0 billion rubles in February-September. The October figure was therefore 47.1% below the current monthly average.

According to the monetary policy guidelines for 2027 and 2028-2029, under the CBR's baseline forecast, the amount of cash in circulation will increase by 3.7 trillion rubles in 2026 to 23.1 trillion rubles, after growth of 1.0 trillion rubles in 2025. Growth is expected to slow to 2.0 trillion rubles in 2027.

The growth in the amount of cash in circulation was the most significant factor driving the increase in banks' demand for liquidity in 2026, the CBR said. Commercial banks exchange funds from their correspondent accounts at the Central Bank for cash and provide it to households and businesses. As a result of this exchange, all else being equal, banks need to attract more liquidity from the Central Bank.

The growth of cash in circulation in 2026, exceeding the values of the comparable periods of 2024-2025, is attributed, among other things, to lower deposit rates, citizens' desire to have cash on hand in case of disruptions to cashless payments, and other reasons.

CBR Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said that the growth in the amount of cash in circulation in 2026 is a natural process after a period of ultra-high bank deposit rates, when it was simply unprofitable for households and businesses to hold cash and forgo yields of 20% and more per annum.

Now, as deposit rates decline, there is a compensation for the unusually slow rate of cash growth seen in 2024-2025, and the observed acceleration in the growth of the cash mass is "catch-up" in nature, as the dynamics of cash gradually return to their historical trends.

The CBR believes that the slight increase in the share of cash in the money supply this year does not in any way contradict the long-term trend toward its decline (it is now around 15%, five years ago it was approximately 20%), and also does not exceed historical ratios with the velocity of circulation in retail trade and other consumption indicators.