National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts base rate to 15.75% per annum, as expected

ASTANA. Oct 23 (Interfax) - The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to set the base rate at 15.75% per annum with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point, the financial regulator said in a statement.

Analysts surveyed by Interfax previously forecast a cut in the base rate to 15.75%-16%. The most accurate proved to be the forecasts of Freedom Finance Global analysts, who expected the rate to be lowered to 15.75%.

"The continued fall in annual inflation and inflation expectations has opened room to cut the base rate," the National Bank said. "The decision keeps monetary conditions moderately tight, as needed to lock in disinflation and bring inflation back to the 5% target in 2028."

The National Bank said that annual inflation has been declining for the 12th consecutive month, standing at 9.3% in September 2026, amid moderately tight monetary policy and a favorable trend in the tenge exchange rate.

"Inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 11.8% in September (12.1% in August)," it said. "Professional market participants lowered their forecast for inflation at the end of 2026 to 9.5% from 10.0%, and for 2027 to 8.3% (8.5% in August)," the bank said.

The National Bank said that, given the current balance of risks, the probability of a change in the base rate before the end of 2026 remains low. "The possibility of a subsequent rate cut will depend on the confirmation of a sustained easing in price pressure. Future decisions will take into account inflation, inflation expectations and changes in the balance of risks," the bank said.

The next scheduled decision of the National Bank's Monetary Policy Committee on the base rate will be announced on December 4, 2026.

In Kazakhstan, a base rate of 16.25% per annum had been in effect since September; prior to that, a rate of 16.75% per annum had been maintained from July.