Russian household inflation expectations fall from 14.2% to 13.2% in Oct, almost back to Feb level - Central Bank survey

MOSCOW. Oct 21 (Interfax) - Russian household inflation expectations have fallen to 13.2% in October form 14.2% in September and almost back to their February 2026 level of 13.1%, according to a short inFOM survey for the Central Bank of Russia.

Inflation expectations jumped from 12.4% to 14.7% in July, their highest in years, as fuel prices rose, before falling to 13.7% in August.

Observed inflation has fallen to 14.5% in October from 15.1% in September, back to their February 2026 level.

Five-year expectations have risen to 12.2% in October from 10.7% in September and close to their August 2026 level of 12.4%.

The latest survey was conducted from October 5-15.

Inflation expectations are typically influenced by changes in prices for marker goods and housing and utility services.

Inflation increased significantly to 0.96% in the week September 29 to October 5, 2026 due to a planned increase in housing and utility charges. Annual inflation was 7.08% as of October 5. Inflation was 0.11% for the week October 6-12, with the annual figure rising to 7.22%, from 6.35% at the end of September.

Inflation expectations among respondents without savings have fallen from 15.4% in September to 14.6% in October, while among those with savings they have fallen from 12.8% to 11.6%.

Observed inflation among respondents without savings are unchanged in October at 16.3% while among those with savings it has fallen from 13.6% to 12.4%.

Household inflation expectations and those of businesses are one of the important factors that the Central Bank takes into account when making monetary policy decisions. The next meeting of the Central Bank's board of directors on the key rate will be held on October 23. The market forecasts the regulator will hold the rate at 14% per annum.

Business price expectations have fallen in October after rising since July, bur remain above the Q2 2026 level.