Russian GDP growth could slow slightly in 2026 - Central Bank

MOSCOW. Oct 13 (Interfax) - Russian GDP growth in 2026 could be slightly lower than last year's 1%, Central Bank Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said.

"Key rate dynamics have a gradual impact on credit and demand, and the full effects of key rate changes are seen after three to six quarters, that is, with a lag of a year to 18 months. We're now seeing how decisions made a year or 18 months ago are affecting credit and demand dynamics, and GDP growth for the year as a whole will be slightly lower than last year," Zabotkin said in the State Duma.

The Central Bank's current forecast is for GDP growth of 0%-1%. The baseline scenario will be adjusted for the regulator's October board meeting, taking into account all incoming information, Zabotkin said.

Commenting on the Central Bank's GDP growth expectations, he said there had been full employment for three years now. This means the potential for further growth is almost entirely determined by the rate of productivity growth.

"And such growth always takes longer than growth driven by increasing the number of employees. Even so, the government's structural measures and the level of investment achieved are ensuring a gradual increase in labor productivity. I must emphasize that investment increased significantly from 2021 to 2024 and is now close to its all-time highs," Zabotkin said.