EFSD raises Tajikistan's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.8%

DUSHANBE. Oct 12 (Interfax) - The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its forecast for Tajikistan's GDP growth in 2026 to 7.8% from 7.1%, and affirmed forecasts of 6.7% and 6% for 2027 and 2028, respectively, the fund said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook.

"Assuming growth drivers keep their momentum in H2 2026, GDP growth should come in higher in 2026 than projected in the previous round. However, [Russian] ruble depreciation starting in August 2026 would reduce the inflow of migrant remittances. In addition, growth momentum is likely to be slowed by high fuel and lubricant prices and supply disruptions," the Outlook says.

The EFSD attributes the projected slowdown in GDP growth in the coming years to a further decline in migrant remittances from Russia, which are a primary driver of domestic demand in Tajikistan. Remittances are expected to fall from 54.5% of GDP in 2025 to 43.2% in 2026 and 38% in 2027, and to 32.8% by 2029. A tighter Russian migration policy and weaker ruble are the main reasons given for this decline. Overall, the EFSD estimates a 1 percentage point drop in remittances relative to GDP could reduce Tajikistan's GDP growth by approximately 0.18 pp.

For the same reason, the EFSD anticipates a reduction of the current account surplus from 17.1% of GDP in 2025 to 7.1% in 2026. This trend is expected to persist, potentially leading to a current account deficit of 1% of GDP by 2029.

The inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised down from 6.3% to 5.2%, despite mounting inflationary pressure amid reduced petroleum product supplies from Russia. The inflation forecast for 2027-2029 is unchanged at 5% annually, in line with the National Bank's target.

The EFSD expects the refinancing rate to rise from 7% to 8% per annum in 2027 and remain at that level throughout the forecast period.

Last week, the World Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for Tajikistan in 2026 from 6.5% to 7.5%. The 2027 forecast was raised from 5% to 6.2%, and 2028 from 4.8% to 5.6%.

The Tajikistan's government projects growth of 8.5% and 8.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

GDP grew 8.4% in 2025, as in 2024.

It rose 8.2% year-on-year in H1 2026.