EFSD raises 2026 GDP growth forecast for Belarus to 2%
MINSK. Oct 12 (Interfax) - The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its forecast for GDP growth in Belarus in 2026 to 2% from the 1.3% it projected in July, and its 2027 forecast to 1.2% from 0.8%, the EFSD said in its October Regional Economic Outlook.
The economic growth and inflation outlook for Belarus in 2026 has been raised compared to the previous forecast, "largely due to domestic demand remaining stronger than previously anticipated, along with an increase in investment activity in Q2 2026," the EFSD said.
The EFSD forecasts the Belarusian economy will subsequently grow close to its equilibrium pace of 1.1%-1.3% per year. Weak external demand and cooling domestic demand will be key factors slowing Belarus's economic growth in the medium term.
The inflation forecast has been revised to 5.2% from 4.8% for 2026, to 6.4% from 5.5% for 2027 and to 5.9% from 5% for 2028 due to stronger domestic demand and an easing of price controls, though the figures remain within the National Bank's stated targets of not more than 7% in 2026 and not more than 6% in 2027.
As the economy slows, the current account deficit could narrow from 1.9% of GDP to 1.1% of GDP in 2026. The deficit is projected to decrease steadily after that, to 0.5% of GDP by 2029.
The budget deficit is also expected to narrow, from 0.5% of GDP this year to 0.3% of GDP next year, with the budget expected to balance in the medium term.
The EFSD forecasts the refinancing rate in Belarus will remain at 9%. per annum throughout the entire forecast period, through 2029 inclusive.
The World Bank last week revised its forecast for Belarusian GDP growth this year to 2.3% from 1.1%. Forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were improved slightly to 0.9% from 0.8% and to 0.8% from 0.7%. The EBRD in September raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 1.3%, affirming the 1.5% growth forecast for 2027.
The Belarusian government is targeting GDP growth of at least 2.8% in 2026.
GDP grew 1.3% in 2025, 4% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2023 after falling 4.7% in 2022.
The economy grew 1.9% year-on-year in January-August 2026.
