Russia's budget deficit at 5.186 trln rubles or 2.2% of GDP in 9M 2026

MOSCOW. Oct 9 (Interfax) - The Russian federal budget was executed with a deficit of 5.186 trillion rubles or 2.2% of GDP according to preliminary data in January-September 2026, the Finance Ministry said.

According to the law on the budget for the current year, the deficit was planned at the level of 3.786 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP. However, in September the Finance Ministry raised its estimate of the deficit for the year to 7.345 trillion rubles or 3.2% of GDP.

The increase in expenditures for financing key priorities, combined with a reduction in base oil and gas revenues, required some deviation from the target parameters of the structural balance, the ministry said. At the same time, the Finance Ministry noted that the expansion of the structural deficit (to 1.8% of GDP) in the current year is financed predominantly without resorting to additional borrowing on the federal loan bond (OFZ) market, which is intended to mitigate the situation with the availability of credit resources for the non-budget sector and to support stability in financial markets.

The deficit was 3.471 trillion rubles or 1.6% of GDP in January-September 2025.

The Finance Ministry does not disclose monthly figures. According to its preliminary data, the deficit for January-August was 5.795 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP. Comparison with these figures points to a surplus of 609 billion rubles in September. A similar figure can be deduced by comparing the data with the Federal Treasury's statistics for 8M 2026, released after the Finance Ministry's figures, as they largely align with the ministry's estimate (5.8 trillion rubles). A surplus of around 600 billion rubles was also seen in August; prior to that, there was a surplus of 196 billion rubles in June.

Budget revenues for 9M rose 10% to 29.639 trillion rubles. The MinFin said there were positive trends in key non-oil and gas revenues for both the federal budget, up 18.8% year-on-year, and the budget system as a whole, up 13.1%.

Non-oil and gas revenues grew 18.8% to 24.168 trillion rubles. VAT revenue grew 27.4% to 13.467 trillion rubles.

Oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% year-on-year to 5.471 trillion rubles and above the baseline level 5.306 trillion rubles for the period due to a lower average dollar exchange rate and an increase in the damper component as global petroleum product prices rose more quickly.

According to preliminary estimate, budget expenditures rose 14.5% year-on-year in 9M to 34.825 trillion rubles. The MinFin said the expenditure limit might be raised this year depending how much windfall non-oil and gas revenue and other sources of financing the deficit (not more than 3 trillion rubles) are received.