E-commerce turnover in Russia may reach 33 trln rubles by 2030, CAGR will be around 20%

MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) - The turnover of Russian online trade will reach 33 trillion rubles by 2030, which implies a 2.3-fold increase in the indicator relative to 2025, according to a forecast is embedded in the model for the development of platform solutions prepared as part of the work on the 2036 National Digital Platforms Development Strategy by the expert group Trade.

The indicator includes a forecast for exports through marketplaces in the amount of 4-5 trillion rubles by 2030. The share of such exports in non-resource non-energy exports will be 5%-6.3% compared to 3.3% for 2025.

According to estimates, if in 2025 the turnover of internet trade in Russia amounted to 13.2 trillion rubles, then in 2026 it will grow to 15.7 trillion rubles. Such indicators are embedded in the model based on the forecasts of the expert group Trade and extrapolation of growth rates for H1 2026 (during this period, the turnover of Russian e-commerce amounted to 7.2 trillion rubles).

The contribution of internet trade to Russia's GDP is expected to reach 3.5% by 2030 compared with 1.9% in 2025. The contribution of marketplaces directly will grow to 2% from 0.4%, respectively.

"The forecast for the growth of online trade turnover assumes an average annual growth rate of about 20% - lower than the rate of 34% per year established in 2016-2025; that is, a gradual slowdown in growth as the market becomes saturated is embedded," the Association of Digital Platforms told Interfax.

Regarding for the logistics infrastructure of online trade, an increase is expected in the number of retail outlets connected to the online sales channel from 211,000 to 400,000, and in the number of goods acceptance and issuance points (including automated ones) from 310,000 to 500,000. At the same time, the number of orders on marketplaces per capita per year may increase from 59 (as of 2024) to 120 by 2030.