World Bank keeps forecast for Russia's GDP growth at 0.8% in 2026, 0.7% in 2027, 2028

MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) - The World Bank has kept its forecast for Russian economic growth at 0.8% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, according to the bank's updated economic forecast.

GDP growth is still expected at 0.7% in 2028.

"In Russia, a major energy producer, growth is likely to ease to 0.8% from 1.0% in 2025, as higher global energy prices have provided little relief because of lower crude oil production at home due in part to refinery outages," the World Bank said in its report on European and Central Asian markets.

Commenting on the forecast for 2027-2028, the World Bank noted the fading of fiscal-budgetary stimulus for the Russian economy and the limitation of activity due to sanctions, a shortage of personnel, weakening investment and declining oil prices as being among negative factors.

In Europe and Central Asia, amid increased prices for imported energy carriers, heightened uncertainty and a cooling of the European Union's economy, a slowdown in economic growth is forecast to 2.2% this year from 2.6% last year, and excluding Russia to 3% from 3.7%. The region's economy will grow 2.4% in 2027 from 3.4%, respectively, and 2.6% in 2028 from 3.7%, respectively, the World Bank said.

According to its forecasts, average consumption growth in Europe and Central Asia will slow to 4% in 2026 from 5.9% in 2025 due to a decline in the growth rates of real wages and consumer lending.

The average budget deficit in the region's countries will hardly change this year and will amount to 2.6% of GDP due to high spending on wages and social benefits, growth in defense and investment spending, and temporary measures to compensate for elevated energy prices, the World Bank said.

Turkey's economy - the second largest in Europe and Central Asia after Russia's - will grow 2.8% this year compared to 3.7% a year earlier, the World Bank said, citing the tightening of economic policy and elevated prices for imported energy carriers as reasons for the slowdown.

"Restrictive policies have weakened domestic demand and helped contain inflationary pressures, while tight credit, weaker real wage growth, and sharply higher diesel prices have weighed on consumer spending," the bank said. "Exports have remained subdued amid weaker EU demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and intensifying competitive pressures," it said.

In 2027 and 2028, Turkey's GDP growth is expected at 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively, which will make a significant contribution to the recovery of the entire region's economy. Slowing inflation and easing financial conditions should support consumption and investment, while strengthening demand from the EU should lift exports, the World Bank said.