Sberbank estimates probability of Central Bank of Russia again cutting rate by 25 bps, pause in Sept at 50/50 - CFO

VLADIVOSTOK. Sept 3 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia's board of directors may either continue monetary policy easing with a cautious step or opt for a pause at its meeting on September 11, and the probability of the two scenarios is roughly equal, Sberbank Deputy Management Board Chairman and Chief Financial Officer Taras Skvortsov said.

"At this meeting, I think our expectations are somewhere around 50/50 - either there will be a 25 bps cut, as in the previous two meetings, or the rate will be kept unchanged," Skvortsov said in an interview with the Vesti information service on the sidelines of the 2026 Eastern Economic Forum.

In July, the Central Bank, having cut the key rate to 14%, removed the soft signal about the future direction of monetary policy from its statement, leaving only a neutral phrase.

In Skvortsov's opinion, rate fluctuations in the range between 14% and 12% will not lead to a serious increase in investment.

"From the point of view of investment activity, probably some slight improvement can be expected at a rate level of 12%. Everything between 14% and 12%, in fact, does not matter much. But we expect a more or less serious wave of investment to emerge when the rate drops to 10%. That is, the level between 14%, 12% and 10% is rather a transitional one; we need to get through it," he said.

"How long will we stay in it? The longer, the harder it will be for economic growth. But for now there are no prerequisites for us to do it quickly. I think maybe even the entire next year will pass for us to make these necessary steps from 14% to 10%. Maybe even more time will be needed, and this of course is a problem," Skvortsov said.

The economy is currently going through a difficult period, and although Sberbank's forecast for the dynamics of GDP in 2027 assumes a slight improvement relative to 2026, this is not enough.

"The situation is very difficult, and we can go either way, and one cannot say that we definitely have a bright future ahead of us. But for now our expectations are that next year the situation will still be somewhat better, and we will see growth exceeding 1% in 2027. But this of course is much less than we would like to have," he said.