Central Bank expects Russian YoY GDP growth to slow to 0.5% in Q3 from 0.8% in Q2

MOSCOW. Aug 5 (Interfax) - Russian GDP growth was estimated at 0.9% year-on-year in Q2 2026 and could slow to 0.5% in Q3, the Central Bank said in a commentary to its medium-term forecast, which was unveiled on July 24 following the meeting of the CBR board of directors.

The Russian Economic Development Ministry has estimated year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 at 0.9%. Rosstat will publish its first estimate for Q2 on August 12.

"In the second quarter of 2026, GDP growth (+0.8% YoY) was close to the Bank of Russia's previous forecast (+0.9% YoY). High-frequency data point to a slowdown in economic activity in July 2026, with more moderate economic growth expected in the third quarter of 2026 (+0.5% YoY)," the commentary says.

Rosstat has estimated GDP fell 0.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026.

The Central Bank in July lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 0.5%-1.5% to 0.0%-1.0%. "The forecast was lowered partly due to a temporary decline in production capacity in certain sectors of the economy. Going forward [in 2027-2029], GDP growth will align with the long-term growth rate of potential output: 1.5%-2.5%," the Central Bank said in the commentary to the forecast.