Decline in profit in 2026 expected by 44% of enterprises, 25% forecast growth - Central Bank of Russia survey
MOSCOW. July 16 (Interfax) - The expectations of Russian enterprises regarding the dynamics of profit in 2026 are rather pessimistic, but they do not have plans for a significant reduction in staff, according to the results of a regular survey conducted by the Central Bank of Russia.
A total of 44% of enterprises expect that their profit will decrease relative to 2025 by the end of the current year, the CBR said in its report on the regional economy which was published on Wednesday. Around 30% of survey participants expect that profit will not change, and around 25% forecast growth (of which more than half expect a modest increase - within 5%).
The main factors constraining profit growth are the increase in the cost of raw materials and components, logistics costs, as well as a decline in demand.
More than half of the enterprises did not revise their net profit plans by the end of H1 2026, while one third adjusted them downward.
Despite the restrained plans for the dynamics of net profit, the majority of companies do not plan to significantly change the number of staff before the end of the year, the Central Bank said. Plans for a reduction were mainly reported by organizations whose net profit decreased.
Two thirds of enterprises plan to increase employee salary levels in the current year, which reflects their desire to retain staff, the CBR said.
As inflationary pressure decreases and the growth of operating expenses slows down, the dynamics of financial results will improve both due to an increase in operating profit and due to a further reduction in interest expenses of those enterprises that have a significant level of debt financing, the CBR said.
In 2025, according to Rosstat, Russian enterprises received a balanced profit (profit minus loss) in the amount of 27.07 trillion rubles, down 3.9% compared to the previous year's figure. The profit of profitable organizations decreased 1.3% to 35.97 trillion rubles. The dynamics of these indicators amounted to minus 10.3% and minus 11.1%, respectively, in January-April 2026.
