Sberbank raises key rate forecast for 2026 to 13%, predicts Central Bank could adopt tougher rhetoric in July
ST. PETERSBURG. July 1 (Interfax) - Sberbank has raised its key rate forecast for the end of 2026 from 12% to 13%, and says that the Central Bank of Russia could toughen its rhetoric at the pivotal meeting in July, Sberbank CFO Taras Skvortsov told Interfax.
"We are currently using 13% as our reference in the baseline scenario, or a bit higher," he said at the sidelines of the CBR Financial Congress.
"It should not be ruled out that the rhetoric at the next meeting will be even tougher in an unfavorable scenario in which inflation moves from the fuel market into other sectors. It is possible that the key rate benchmark might also need to be raised, to the point that we might not see any more rate cuts at all this year," Skvortsov said.
He said that macroeconomic indicators still showed that the key rate could be lowered further. "In our view, all the factors that are influenced precisely by monetary policy today point to a need to lower the rate," he said.
Skvortsov also said that a smoother and more prolonged easing of monetary policy would not have a substantial impact on Sberbank's interest income, but could affect the financial situation of the bank's clients and lead to a growth in provisions.
"In terms of interest income, this is not a significant factor for our business, but in terms of our clients' financial situation, it is, of course, a negative aspect. It is this factor which sets a trend of deterioration in the financial situation of corporate clients and the potential growth of provisions," Skvortsov said.
Sberbank is very likely to raise its 2026 inflation forecast from the current 6%-6.5% and lower the GDP growth forecast from the current 0.5%-1%. It will publish the specific forecasts after the CBR board meeting in July.
Despite the consensus forecast, the CBR lowered the key rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 14.25% per annum in June, versus the market's prediction of a cut of 50 bps to 14%. The regulator also said that a more stimulating fiscal policy for the next three-year period could require a higher key rate trajectory than the one envisaged by the baseline scenario from April.
