Global wheat prices declining ahead of new harvest, opening of Strait of Hormuz - Rusagrotrans

MOSCOW. June 17 (Interfax) - Global wheat prices continued to decline from June 10 to June 17 ahead of the new harvest entering the market, while these dynamics are also supported by information about the planned signing of a memorandum between the United States and Iran which should result in the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Physical wheat market prices largely continued to fall under pressure from the approaching massive arrival of new harvest grain on the market and the signing of a memorandum between the U.S. and Iran, which implies the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz," analysts at Rusagrotrans's analytical center told Interfax.

In particular, analysts have recorded a decrease in export prices for the new harvest in Russia. France and Germany were exceptions, where wheat prices rose by $5 and $1 per tonne over the week, respectively. The reason for this in the fact that the upcoming hot weather could negatively affect the condition of crops, they said.

Futures prices showed multidirectional dynamics.

The center recalled that the U.S. Department of Agriculture last week raised its forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia in the 2026-2027 season (July-June) by 2 million tonnes to 88 million tonnes (excluding Crimea). The forecast for wheat exports remained unchanged at 47 million tonnes.

In addition, the estimate of wheat imports to Turkey was reduced from 6 million to 5.5 million tonnes, as well as to Syria, Nigeria (due to reduced consumption) and Morocco (duties in June and July 2026). At the same time, the import forecast for Egypt was raised by 1 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes due to increased consumption.

The price situation is also being shaped amid improving conditions for winter and spring wheat, corn and soybeans in the United States. The winter wheat harvest is progressing with a significant lead, the center said.