IEA raises forecast for decline in global oil demand in 2026 to 1.1 mln bpd, expects return to growth of 2 mln bpd in 2027

MOSCOW. June 17 (Interfax) - Global demand for oil should decline by 1.12 million bpd in 2026 compared to the previous year, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report.

Analysts a month earlier had expected a decline of 418,000 bpd, which represents a downward revision of 700,000 bpd to the forecast.

According to the latest report, the IEA estimates global oil demand in 2025 at 104.41 million bpd versus the previous estimate of 104.45 million bpd, and in 2026 at 103.29 million bpd, down from 104.03 million bpd. The agency's first estimate for 2027 is 105.3 million bpd. Therefore, the agency's analysts expect global oil demand to grow by 2 million bpd next year.

The IEA notes that global oil demand fell sharply in April and May amid the effect of the conflict over Iran, which resulted in reduced supply and rising fuel prices. According to preliminary data, oil demand in the second quarter will decline by an average of 5 million bpd, or almost 5%, compared to the same period last year.

"The hardest hit countries were Asia and the Middle East, particularly supplies to China, South Korea, and Japan. Demand also fell sharply in India, Southeast Asia, and Europe. The main exception to this trend so far has been OECD countries in the Americas, as a stable US economy and continued growth in LPG use have prevented a decline in oil demand in the region," the report indicates.

According to the IEA's current assessment, global oil demand will continue to decline in the third quarter by 1.7 million bpd, and then begin to grow in the fourth quarter by 1.1 million bpd.