IMF maintains forecast for Kazakhstan's economic growth in 2026 at 4.6%, warns of possible risks
ASTANA. June 16 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its forecast for Kazakhstan's economic growth in 2026 at around 4.6%, noting the resilience of economic dynamics amid high oil prices, active domestic demand, and investment inflows.
Such assessments are contained in the concluding statement of the IMF mission that worked in the country from June 3 to 12, the National Bank of Kazakhstan said.
Previously, in the April edition of its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF raised its forecast for Kazakhstan's GDP growth in 2026 to 4.6% and to 4.4% in 2027.
According to the fund's experts' estimates, Kazakhstan's international reserves remain at a sufficient level and cover around ten months of imports.
At the same time, the IMF pointed to a number of risks for the country's economy, including the possible strengthening of domestic demand, rising import prices, global uncertainty, tightening financial conditions in global markets, and potential disruptions in the operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
The IMF's experts emphasized the importance of fiscal discipline and increasing the efficiency of public spending for implementing the joint action program of the government, the National Bank, and the Agency for the Regulation and Development of the Financial Market for 2026-2028.
According to the IMF's assessment, additional support for the sustainability of public finances and the external sector could be provided by maintaining high oil prices, consistently implementing the measures provided for by the program, and continuing the reform of the utility tariff system.
The fund also noted a slowdown in inflation in Kazakhstan to 10.4% in May 2026 from 12.9% in September 2025, but pointed out that the indicator still exceeds the target range (9%-11%). The September 2025 level, according to the Bureau of National Statistics, was the highest in 25 months.
In this regard, the IMF said it is important to maintain a restrictive monetary policy until the inflation target is achieved.
According to the IMF's assessment, the National Bank's measures to absorb excess liquidity, including raising minimum reserve requirements and increasing the level of note issuance, contribute to a gradual reduction in inflationary pressure.
At the same time, the fund considers it necessary to pursue a more restrained policy in the area of government and quasi-government financing to prevent overheating of the economy.
Among additional tools for increasing the efficiency of fiscal policy, the IMF cited the introduction of the digital tenge, which will make it possible to increase transparency, targeting, and real-time control over the use of budget funds and National Fund resources.
According to the fund's mission assessment, Kazakhstan has opportunities to further reduce inflation and increase economic growth potential through improving macroeconomic policy and continuing structural reforms.
