Analysts lower Russian 2026 GDP growth, inflation, improve oil and exchange rate forecasts

MOSCOW. June 10 (Interfax) - Analysts have lowered their GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2026 to 0.7% from 1.0% and their inflation outlook to 5.3% from 5.5%, according to the latest Central Bank survey.

The average key rate forecast for 2026 is unchanged at 14.1%.

Expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes have been raised to $70/bbl from $65 in the April survey, maintained at $60/bbl for 2027 and lowered to $59/bbl from $60 for 2028. Analysts expect the oil price to be $57/bbl in 2029.

Analysts now forecast the average annual exchange rate for 2026 at 78.1 rubles/$1, down from 81.2 rubles in the April survey, for 2027 at 86.2 rubles/$1, down from 89 rubles, for 2028 at 94.3 rubles/$1, down from 96.3 rubles, and for 2029 at 97.8 rubles/$1.

GDP growth is forecast at 1.5% in 2027 (expectations unchanged) and at 1.7% in 2028 (previously 1.8%), while the new forecast for 2029 is 1.8%.

The inflation forecast for the medium term remained unchanged at 4.4% in 2027, with a target of 4.0% in 2028 and 2029.

The average key rate in 2027 is expected to be 10.6% (previously, it was 10.7%), at 9.0% in 2028 (unchanged) and at 8.1% in 2029.

Analysts' estimate of the neutral rate remained unchanged at 8%.

The survey was conducted on June 5-9, 2026. A total of 31 economists from various organizations took part in it.