Potential demand for forex in Ukraine on currently restricted transactions could reach $47 bln in 2026-2027 - NBU

MOSCOW. May 19 (Interfax) - Potential demand for foreign currency in Ukraine to conduct transactions currently subject to currency restrictions could reach $47 billion in 2026-2027, Ukrainian media reported citing the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) statement on its website.

The largest share of this estimate are payments on so-called old foreign loans, amounting to $22 billion in principal and $6 billion in interest, it said.

Another $3 billion each is related to old customs declarations and the payment of the principal amount of Eurobonds, plus $1 billion bank transactions.

Apart from these overdue payments, future dividends of bank clients are estimated at $9 billion and dividends of banks themselves at $2 billion, it said.

The NBU said it was following strategically defined stages of currency liberalization and exchange rate flexibility, the easing of currency restrictions being one of the interconnected elements of reinstating the monetary policy and currency regulation principles that were in place before the crisis.

At the same time, the speed of easing currency restrictions depends on the formation of the essential macro-financial preconditions, particularly the level of inflation and inflation expectations, international reserves, the forex market stability, interest rates, and financial stability indicators, it said.

Currency liberalization in 2024-2026 has not created a window for uncontrolled capital outflow, and the share of forex purchases and foreign transfers associated with liberalization remains stable at around 4% and 6%, respectively, the NBU said.

The total volume of transactions under the incentive-based liberalization is $707 million, primarily within the borrowing limit. The available free limit totals $564 million, including $299 million within the borrowing limit and $265 million within the investment limit, it said.

In the future, the NBU plans to continue currency liberalization along two tracks, namely a general easing of restrictions and incentive-based liberalization, with priority given to measures stimulating the inflow of new funds into Ukraine, including investments and loans.

As reported, the NBU introduced a mechanism for stimulating currency liberalization in 2025, which permits certain currency transactions above the established restrictions within the investment, donation, or borrowing limits.

The investment limit is formed by funds attracted from abroad for the authorized capital of Ukrainian businesses starting May 12, 2025. The donation limit is formed by companies' transfers to a special NBU account to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces starting August 7, 2025. The borrowing limit, which has been in effect since January 14, 2026, is formed by foreign currency loans and borrowings from non-residents received from abroad and credited to a company's account in a Ukrainian bank after January 1, 2026.