Russia's personnel shortage estimated at 3.1 mln people by 2030, can be closed through industry-specific labor productivity improvement programs - deputy PM

KRASNOYARSK. May 19 (Interfax) - Russian industries can independently almost completely close the personnel shortage in the country, which it is estimated will be at 3.1 million people by 2030, by implementing labor productivity improvement programs, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a labor productivity improvement forum in Krasnoyarsk.

"According to the Labor Ministry's estimate, under the current socio-demographic model, we have effectively approached a structural limit. What does this mean? This means that the personnel shortage is currently one of the constraints on economic growth. And according to the forecast of the Economic Development Ministry and the Labor Ministry, by 2030 the additional need for workers in our economy will amount to about 3.1 million people. In the next five years, due to workers retiring, about 11 million jobs will need to be replaced. And I would like to emphasize that this is not a challenge on a long-term horizon, but specifically a challenge of today, and without solving this challenge we will not be able to ensure the goals and objectives set for achieving national development goals and ensuring sustainable economic growth," Novak said.

He noted that economic growth slowed down in 2025. "Over the past three years, our economy has grown by more than 10%, and in 2023 growth was 4.1%, in 2024 it was 4.9%. Last year, our growth rates naturally normalized to plus 1%, and this reflects the transition from a recovery phase to balanced growth," Novak said.

At the same time, unemployment in the country continues to remain at historic lows. According to Rosstat, it was 2.2% in March 2026.

Novak recalled that against this backdrop the government is implementing measures to increase labor productivity and change the employment structure with the flow of personnel into higher-tech industries. "Over the past five years, labor productivity in Russia has been growing at a good pace - 1.4% on average, and in the last two years at even higher rates - plus 4.6% in 2024," he said, emphasizing that Russia needs to maintain this dynamic.

The implementation of already launched and new industry-specific labor productivity improvement programs can almost completely provide the economy with the missing personnel, he said.

"The potential for releasing and reorienting personnel and resources through industry-specific programs, we estimate, will create approximately an additional 3 million jobs. This figure almost coincides with the projected personnel shortage. There are industry-specific programs, and we believe that this is not just a tool to improve the efficiency of individual enterprises; it is, essentially, a managerial response to the main structural gap in the Russian economy," Novak said.