Russia's economy ministry sees upturn in GDP growth in March, expects it to strengthen in April-May

MOSCOW. May 13 (Interfax) - The Russian economy showed signs of recovery in March, despite slumping in the first quarter of 2026 overall, and the Economic Development Ministry expects this trend to strengthen in April-May.

"Of course, we also understand the current situation. Our GDP in the first two months, as you noted, did indeed fall. In March growth recovered. Of course, at this point it's probably premature to talk about the recovery of the trajectory in general, but we're seeing that the situation is stabilizing," Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

"Did I understand you correctly that on the whole we're seeing some positive trends in the area of macroeconomics? Annual inflation is now 5.6% and economic growth, although negative in the first quarter, nonetheless we can already also document some positive trends?" Putin asked at the end of the meeting.

"Yes, absolutely right. In terms of growth rates, although the first quarter was negative 0.3% [in annual terms], for March we had an economic growth rate of 1.8% year-on-year and we expect that this trend will strengthen in April-May," Reshetnikov said.

He said also told the president that his ministry's updated forecast projects that GDP growth will measure 0.4% in 2026 and then gradually accelerate to 2.4% in 2029.

"We have now formulated the scenario conditions for the economy's development that will determine the next three years. They have been reviewed and supported by the government," he said.

"In general, the forecast is fairly conservative, including on oil prices. We're [...] factoring in $50 per barrel [for Urals crude] for the next three years [2027-2029] and $59 per barrel is the estimate for this year, which is also clearly conservative, particularly amid the current situation, but nonetheless," Reshetnikov said.