National Bank of Ukraine increases forecast of 2026 current account deficit

MOSCOW. May 4 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its estimate of Ukraine's current account deficit in 2026 by $2.5 billion, or 6.7%, to $39.7 billion in its April macroeconomic forecast compared to its January forecast, Ukrainian media said citing the NBU's press release.

The updated macroeconomic forecast assumes that the current account deficit is expected to reach $49.4 billion in 2027, compared to $41.6 billion in the previous forecast; hence, the NBU downgraded its previous forecast by $7.8 billion, or 18.8%. It also downgraded its 2028 current deficit forecast by $6.4 billion, or 22%, to $35.5 billion, compared to $29.1 billion in its January estimate.

At the same time, the bank only slightly adjusted its forecast of Ukraine's international reserves for 2026 to $64.8 billion, down from $65.0 billion in January.

It lowered its 2027 forecast of international reserves by $6.4 billion, or 8.8%, to $66.5 billion from $72.9 billion in the January estimate. For 2028, it lowered its reserve forecast by $9.5 billion, or 13.5%, to $61.1 billion from $70.6 billion.

Concerning its monetary policy, the NBU said uncertainty regarding external support has significantly decreased after the European Union unlocked 90-billion-euro funding for Ukraine under the Ukraine Support Loan program in April, with the first tranche scheduled for June.

The NBU expects that Ukraine will receive over $53 billion in international aid in 2026, around $42 billion in 2027, and $22 billion in 2028.

The bank believes this amount of external support will be enough to finance critical budget expenditures and preserve international reserves at a high level, thus maintaining stability of the foreign exchange market.

As reported, the NBU Board predictably decided on April 30 to maintain the key interest rate at 15% per annum and revise its forecast path, expecting the rate to remain at this level until Q2 2027.