National Bank worsens forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 from 1.8% to 1.3%

MOSCOW. April 30 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 to be 1.3%, whereas in its January Inflation Report it forecast 1.8% and in its October report it predicted 2%, Ukrainian media reported, citing a press release from the regulator.

"Given the worse results for the first quarter, the still difficult state of the energy system and the accumulation of negative economic effects from the conflict in the Middle East, the NBU worsened its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%," the National Bank said.

The NBU estimated real GDP growth in Q1 at 0.2%, whereas in January it had expected it to be 2.4%, and for the whole of last year it amounted to 1.8%.

According to the regulator, economic activity slowed down at the beginning of 2026, primarily due to damage to energy infrastructure against the backdrop of a very cold winter. Restrained fiscal policy, given delays in the receipt of foreign aid, had an additional impact.

According to NBU estimates, economic activity has revived somewhat as energy shortages have decreased in the spring, and catching up on budget expenditures as international aid arrives will help revive the economy in the coming months.

"As the conditions for the functioning of Ukraine's economy gradually normalize and geopolitical tensions decrease, real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8%-3.7% in 2027-2028. This will be primarily facilitated by sustainable consumer demand, a revival of investment activity, the restoration of the energy system, and increasing harvests," the National Bank said.

It maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2027 at 2.8%, and at 3.7% for 2028.

As reported, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its April World Economic Outlook forecast Ukraine's GDP growth at 2% in 2026 and its acceleration to 3.5% in 2027.

The World Bank expects a slowdown in Ukraine's economic growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 1.8% last year, and its acceleration to 4% in 2027.

Investment company Dragon Capital recently improved its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5%, while ratings agency Fitch expects it at 1.6%.