National Bank worsens inflation forecast for Ukraine to 9.4% in 2026

MOSCOW. April 30 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast for Ukraine upward for 2026 to 9.4% from 7.5% in its previous January forecast, and for 2027 to 6.5% from 6%, Ukrainian media reported, quoting an NBU oress release.

"In the coming months, inflation will remain close to its current level but will accelerate in the second half of the year (to 9.4% by year-end) due to increased pressure on companies' production costs, primarily as a result of higher energy prices, which has already occurred," the regulator said.

According to the NBU's updated forecast, inflation will return to a downward trajectory in 2027 and reach the 5% target in 2028.

"Higher fuel prices will feed into inflation both directly and through secondary effects, which will impact the price dynamics of various goods and services with a certain time lag. However, the NBU's monetary policy and the fading effects of elevated fuel prices will contribute to disinflation. As a result, inflation will slow to 6.5% at the end of 2027 and to the 5% target in 2028," the regulator said.

The National Bank said it expected price stabilization due to easing external price pressures, a gradual increase in harvests and improvements in the energy situation.

As reported, in January 2026 the NBU had already revised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 7.5% from 6.6% and for 2027 to 6% from 5%.

Inflation in Ukraine slowed to 8% in 2025 from 12% a year earlier. In 2023, it stood at 5.1% after surging to 26.6% in 2022.