Investment in Russia in 2026 will be at previous year's level, March-April indicate its recovery - Central Bank governor
MOSCOW. April 24 (Interfax) - Investment activity in Russia decreased at the beginning of the year, but March and April are already showing some recovery, and the Central Bank of Russia expects investments at the previous year's level in 2025, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a briefing following the meeting of the Central Bank's board of directors at which it cut the key rate from 15.0% to 14.5%.
"Economic activity decelerated in Q1 2026, which was partly explained by the economy's adaptation to the tax changes. Another contributor was calendar effects. The first two months of the year had three fewer business days than January-February 2025, which accounted for up to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in year-on-year GDP growth rates in Q1 2026, according to our estimate. In Q2 2026, this factor will have the opposite effect. May-June will have three more business days than a year earlier. All this means that we will only be able to assess output dynamics more accurately based on statistics for the first six months of 2026 as a whole," Nabiullina said.
"Investment activity has generally declined, while remaining highly heterogeneous across industries and regions. Thus, mining and quarrying enterprises had moderate investment plans in early 2026 due to last year's weak financial results. Companies may revise their investment plans upwards this year due to higher prices in global markets. Construction is also expected to rebound to a certain extent. The abnormal frosts and snowfalls at the beginning of this year led to forced downtime in Q1 2026, and therefore, construction companies will make efforts to catch up in the next quarter," she said regarding the investment situation.
"According to our forecast, total investment in 2026 will be comparable with last year's amount," she said.
"The economy's moderate dynamics in Q1 2026 will be offset in the next periods, according to our estimates. In addition to calendar effects, this will be driven by a partial rebound in consumer and investment activity, which is already obvious from high-frequency data for March and April," she said.
