IMF projects Ukraine's GDP to grow 2% in 2026

MOSCOW. April 15 (Interfax) - Ukraine's real GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, compared to 1.8% last year, Ukrainian media reported citing the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook for April, published during its spring meeting in Washington this week.

Ukraine's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% in 2027, with inflation declining to 7.0% from 7.5% in 2026 and 8.0% in 2025, it said.

As for the current account deficit, the IMF expects it to widen to 18.9% of GDP this year from 15.0% last year and narrow to 16.6% of GDP next year and 7.4% of GDP in 2031.

This deficit will be offset by continued significant government net borrowing, which is expected to amount to 18.4% of GDP in 2026 and 17.7% of GDP in 2027, down from 23.3% of GDP in 2025.

As for unemployment, the IMF expects it to decrease to 10.2% in 2026 from 11.6% in 2025, but rise to 12.0% in 2027.

As reported, when approving the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine in late February 2026, the IMF projected GDP growth this year to be in the range of 1.8%-2.5%, with inflation at 7.5% and the current account deficit widening to 19.1% of GDP.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.8% in January 2026 from 2.0% in October 2025, citing a deterioration of the situation in the energy sector. At the same time, the NBU maintained its GDP forecast for 2027 at 2.8%, while worsening its inflation forecast to 7.5% from 6.6% for 2026 and to 6% from 5% for 2027.

The World Bank last week also downgraded its outlook of Ukraine's economic growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2% but said it expected it to accelerate to 4% in 2027.