USDA cuts its wheat export forecast for Ukraine by 7.4%

MOSCOW. April 10 (Interfax) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (July 2025-June 2026) by 1 million tonnes, or 7.4% from 13.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes in its April 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, while keeping its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in the reporting period unchanged.

The USDA's forecast for Ukraine's wheat production in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) remains unchanged. Wheat exports are projected at 12.5 million tonnes (-1 million tonnes), and ending stocks at 3.93 million tonnes (+0.8 million tonnes).

The USDA raised its global wheat production forecast in the 2025-2026 MY by 2.03 million tonnes to 844.15 million tonnes but lowered its global export estimate by 0.28 million tonnes to 221.88 million tonnes. It expects global ending stocks to grow by 6 million tonnes to 283.12 million tonnes.

The USDA's Ukraine corn production forecast in the 2025-2026 MY remains unchanged at 30.7 million tonnes. Corn exports from Ukraine are projected at 22 million tonnes and ending stocks at 2.95 million tonnes.

The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2025-2026 MY at 1.301 billion tonnes (+3.63 million tonnes), global corn exports at 207.29 million tonnes (0.44 million tonnes), and global corn ending stocks at 294.81 million tonnes (+2.06 million tonnes).

As for the main wheat exporters, the USDA raised its production forecast for the European Union by 1.11 million tonnes to 145.11 million tonnes and by 0.8 million tonnes to 90.3 million tonnes for Russia. It also raised the wheat export forecast for Russia by 1 million tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes but lowered it for Australia by 0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes.

Adjustments in the corn segment were mainly due to South Africa, the corn production forecast for which was raised by 0.8 million tonnes to 17.3 million tonnes and the export estimate grew by 0.3 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes. The USDA's forecast for Argentina (52 million tonne harvest and 37 million tonne exports) and for Brazil (132 million tonne harvest and 43 million tonne exports) is the same as in the March report.

The USDA projects China's wheat production at 140.07 million tonnes and corn production at 301.24 million tonnes in the 2025-2026 MY.