Experts predict renaissance in oil and gas exploration in Russia
MOSCOW. April 9 (Interfax) - The increasing geological complexity of searching for new hydrocarbon deposits in Russia in recent years has led to a reduction in the level of exploration drilling by companies, which are increasingly implementing an appraisal paradigm.
However, the steady deterioration of hydrocarbon reserves will lead to the coming years becoming a transition period - from cautious delineation drilling to systematic exploration work. Within the next two to three years, operating companies will need to return to the stage of mass exploration for new reserves, with active state participation.
This opinion was expressed in an article, "An oil and gas exploration renaissance in Russia" published in the journal "Mineral Resources of Russia: Economics and Management." The authors of the article are Alexander Afanasenkov, a member of the board and advisor to the general director of Rosgeo and deputy head of science at RNG, as well as Viktor Skorobogatov, chief researcher at the Center for Geological Support of Field Development in the European Part and Western Siberia of Gazprom VNIIGAZ and professor at the Department of Geology and Exploration of Hydrocarbon Deposits at MGRI.
Among the main current trends in the field of hydrocarbon deposit exploration worldwide, the authors cite the steady decline in the number of discoveries, especially in old oil and gas producing regions (Europe, the USA and others). The discovery of large, predominantly gas-bearing reserves occurs within poorly studied offshore areas - the eastern Mediterranean, the Guyana shelf, West Africa, the Yamal shelf of the Kara Sea (the South Kara region) and the Sakhalin shelf. In addition, there is a global depletion of hydrocarbon reserves on land and a decrease in the average proven reserves of newly discovered fields.
In Russia, the current period of oil and gas exploration work is characterized by increasing geological complexity and, as a consequence, increased geological risks of "non-discovery of fields"; a reduction in the size of newly discovered onshore fields; continued exploration and discoveries on the shelf, but in a "sluggish" mode; the emergence of numerous oil rims even in predominantly gas-bearing regions; a deterioration in the structure of prospective and forecast resources of free gas and especially oil, and others.
"In recent decades, the amount of exploration drilling by companies in Russia has significantly decreased, and the appraisal paradigm remains dominant in exploration activities. Only in 2022-2023 did a transition begin to a new - exploration paradigm for oil and gas work, primarily on the Arctic shelf and in poorly studied areas of the West Siberian and East Siberian mega-provinces. This should be expressed in strengthening the exploration component in the structure of exploration activities, increasing the amount of exploration work to 30%-35%, and in completely new areas to 50% or more, although the main increments (85%-90%) of new reserves were obtained through appraisal work," the article says.
The authors express the opinion that the next two years, 2026 and 2027, for large companies should become a transition from the stage of extensive appraisal to the stage of mass exploration. In the perspective up to 2040, the development of this process in Russia will ensure the search on land for the last largest (over 100 billion m3), as well as a number of large (over 30 billion m3) gas-bearing deposits in Siberia, as well as the widespread search for oil deposits of any size on land. On the shelf, priority will be given to exploring the Yamal, Sakhalin and Barents Sea regions, the experts said.
"Ultimately, the total geologically justified increase in proven reserves of categories B1+C1 by 2040 across the Yamal, Gydan (land) and South Kara (shelf) Arctic regions of the West Siberian oil and gas mega-province can be estimated at 15.4 [trillion] - 16.5 trillion m3 of gas and up to 2.5 billion tonnes of oil and condensate (by all operating companies)," the article said.
According to the authors, "every self-respecting operating company should annually introduce at least six to seven new promising areas into exploration drilling (and, of course, discover, if possible, three to four, up to five, new hydrocarbon deposits, even if not very large in terms of potential reserves)," as well as explore the most important lithological-stratigraphic complexes - the "floors" of further appraisal.
"Finally, the relationship between the state and operating companies in the further study and development of subsurface resources in poorly explored land and shelf areas should be coordinated. Isn't it time to launch parametric drilling on the Arctic shelf? After drilling and testing (at least one well) in the central parts of the five Arctic seas, much will become clear," the experts said.
"So, a renaissance - a revival of hydrocarbon exploration in Russia - is not just overdue. It is absolutely necessary! And here, financial and technical alliances between companies and the state have 'reasonable chances' for implementation. Everyone will benefit from this. Especially in the Arctic land and shelf areas," they said.
At the beginning of the third decade of the current century, the time has come for an exploration renaissance in the development of the oil and gas mineral resource base not only in Russia, but also in most countries of the world that have not yet exhausted the forecast hydrocarbon resources of their sedimentary basins (China, Norway, and so on) - this is the call of the times, the authors said.
