Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs sees risk of ruble strengthening, still sees exchange rate of 90-95 rubles/$1 as preferable - union head
MOSCOW. April 7 (Interfax) - It is difficult to assign a fundamental level for the ruble at the moment, as there are too many influencing factors, many of which indicate that Russia's national currency could appreciate further, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) Alexander Shokhin said.
He said so in response to comments by Russian Economy Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov that fundamental factors currently pointed to a stronger ruble than the 92.2 rubles/$1 envisaged by the September macroeconomic forecast for 2026. "Many are discussing the exchange rate; we need to take a fundamental look at the model. We have already said that it assumes a stronger rate than in our previous forecasts. We will reflect this when we adjust the macroeconomic forecast in April," the minister said in late March.
"In actual fact, I am inclined to agree more with Gref [Sberbank CEO Herman Gref] and Kostin [VTB CEO Andrei Kostin] in this - that it would be good to have a range of 90-95 [rubles/$1]. And fundamentally, the issue is that our rate is set for a fairly narrow segment: first of all, we really don't have any particular demand for imports, and there isn't any particular demand for investments [...] With no investments, there is no demand for machinery and equipment, and many would be willing to purchase them. Secondly, we have already moved to payments in rubles and so on, meaning currency doesn't play a part, which is why demand for currency is lower in this aspect, too," Shokhin told journalists.
He also said that as soon as the Finance Ministry suspended the effect of the fiscal rule until the middle of the year, the ruble strengthened somewhat; however, the currency is unlikely to reach 85 rubles/$1.
"And if, God forbid, the situation with high oil prices should be prolonged, the ruble will strengthen due to the inflow of currency," he said.
Shokhin said that the government and Central Bank possibly needed to find swift solutions to bringing the exchange rate to the level built into the budget planning for this year. "At the end of the 1990s there was such a concept as the 'currency corridor' [...] The exchange rate must not be targeted, of course, or fixed, but the government and the Central Bank must have had something in mind when the set the average annual exchange rate for 2026 at 92.2 rubles/$1; that means there must have been some calculations. What has actually changed in order for the exchange rate to start gaining so drastically? I therefore wouldn't want to talk about a fundamental rate in terms of a specific figure - it really does depend on many factors, on the situation in the Middle East, which will clearly continue to have an impact. Will the Central Bank or the government change their policy, so to speak, on the sale and purchase of currency from the National Wealth Fund, or will it just mirror the Central Bank? Of course, it would be better if the Central Bank were to intervene on this market, so to say, but it categorically objects to that," Shokhin said.
