Fundamental factors playing in favor of strong ruble, forecast for 2026 will be revised - Russian economic development minister

SHYMKENT. March 27 (Interfax) - Fundamental factors in the form of a strong trade balance and low capital outflow will pressure the ruble towards strengthening, and the Economic Development Ministry will revise the current forecast for the average exchange rate for 2026 in April, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told journalists on the sidelines of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Shymkent, Kazakhstan.

"When you analyze everything, you need to understand that the inflow of foreign currency revenue lags by about two months [from the export itself]. That is, revenue is currently arriving for shipments in January-February, when oil prices were low. The question is what will happen to oil prices, for example, by summer? Then there is the question of whether companies will direct all their revenue to the foreign exchange market or not, and what portion? Currently, the mandatory sale of foreign currency revenue requirement is zero. Therefore, the situation needs to be looked at comprehensively," Reshetnikov said regarding expectations for the ruble exchange rate amid the Finance Ministry's temporary suspension of foreign exchange operations under the fiscal rule.

"But the main thing is we understand that there will be pressure [causing the ruble to gain] from the strong trade surplus and the drastic decrease in capital outflow. Until we harmonize the trade balance somehow - through services, an increase in imports, a reduction in exports or a return to the former capital outflow model - the situation will be like this," Reshetnikov said.

"There are many discussions around the exchange rate - we need to take a fundamental look at the model, which, as we have already said, assumes a stronger rate than the one in our previous forecasts [in September, the average annual rate for 2026 was set at 92.2 rubles/$1]. We will reflect this when we adjust our macroeconomic forecast in April," the minister said.

He said that with the current requirement for the mandatory sale of forex revenue at zero, the repatriation mechanism stipulated by the president's decree does not affect the exchange rate, but can be viewed as a potential tool. "From our point of view, this is a potential tool which we could keep in reserve," the minister said, asked whether the Economic Development Ministry shared the Finance Ministry's stance on the viability of extending the decree on the mandatory sale of forex revenue after it expires in May.