Economic activity in Russia below forecast for Q1, 2026 GDP growth estimate of 0.5%-1.5% still stands - Nabiullina

MOSCOW. March 20 (Interfax) - Economic activity in Russia at the beginning of 2026 is below the Central Bank's expectations for Q1, but overall, the GDP growth forecast of 0.5%-1.5% for 2026 still stands, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a briefing following the Central Bank's board meeting, where the key rate was lowered from 15.5% to 15.0%.

"It's too early to talk about a sustainable trend [for economic activity to weaken]. We expect additional information to become available by the time of the April meeting, including a quarterly breakdown of data [on GDP dynamics] for last year. This is vital to draw conclusions about the trends unfolding in the economy," she said.

"Based on the current data from Rosstat, we see that economic activity is below our forecast for the first quarter of 2026 [for year-on-year growth of 1.6%]. But this was also influenced by last year's high base, by the renowned seasonal factor-there were fewer working days [two fewer in January] and by weather conditions-the cold winter slowed construction. Household consumption also corrected downwards after accelerating at the end of last year," Nabiullina said, describing the reasons for weak economic activity at the beginning of the year.

She said PMI indicators also point to "weak growth in economic activity, which varies across sectors and is uneven."

"But our overall forecast for the year is currently 0.5%-1.5%; we will look at information and update it if necessary," she said.

Nabiullina also said the Central Bank's risk scenario was considered to be a low probability.

Central Bank Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said that "the actual data on how the first quarter is tuning out give no grounds to say that the situation is developing outside the 2026 forecast range."

"Yes, price growth and economic activity in the first quarter are probably somewhat lower than the board of directors envisaged in December and February, but this is within the 2026 forecast ranges - 0.5%-1.5% GDP growth, 4.5%-5.5% inflation - in the February forecast," he said.