Russian household inflation expectations rise to 13.4% in March, returning to level of May 2025 - Central Bank survey

MOSCOW. March 18 (Interfax) - Russian household inflation expectations rose to 13.4% in March 2026, returning to the level of May 2025, according to a survey by inFOM conducted at the request of the Central Bank of Russia.

It was previously reported that household inflation expectations decreased to 13.1% in February. In January 2026, the indicator remained at the December 2025 level of 13.7%.

Observed inflation rose sharply in March, to 15.6% and close to the levels of May-June 2025. Previously, this indicator had not changed for four consecutive months - it remained at 14.5% from November 2025 to February 2026.

The latest survey was conducted on March 3-12, 2026.

Inflation expectations in 2025 were highest in January, at 14.0%. They were 13.7% in February 2025, 12.9% in March, 13.1% in April, 13.4% in May, 13% in June and July, 13.5% in August, 12.6% in September and October, 13.3% in November and 13.7% in December.

Inflation expectations among respondents without savings have risen to 14.4% in March from 14.2% in February, while among respondents with savings they have risen to 12.3% from 11.5%.

Observed inflation among respondents without savings has risen to 16.3% from 16.0%, while among respondents with savings it has risen to 14.8% from 12.9%.

Household and business inflation expectations are key factors in the Central Bank's monetary-policy decision making. The regulator's next rate-setting meeting takes place on March 20.

Russian business price expectations are little changed in March and remain close to their 2025 average, the Central Bank said in a commentary following a survey of enterprises. Current price expectations have fallen considerably in March, back to their January level.

Kirill Tremasov, advisor to the Central Bank governor, has said household inflation expectations had by and large remained at 13%-14% for the past year and a half. "As for the household expectations, in my opinion, they have been stable for the past year and a half. We see them fluctuate by a few tenths here and there, but if we look at the longer-term picture, they are generally stable. Following this downward fluctuation [in February] there could well be some small upward fluctuation, but I wouldn't interpret this directly as a rise in inflation expectations or a sharp drop in inflation expectations. Basically, my feeling is that they have simply got stuck at 13%-14%," Tremasov said in late February.