Kazakh grain market remains sluggish amid tax changes, Iran conflict disrupts barley trade - Grain Union

ASTANA. March 10 (Interfax) - Kazakhstan's grain market activity has slowed because of new tax requirements and external factors related to the situation in Iran, which has effectively halted barley exports, the Grain Union of Kazakhstan said.

"The market is trying to recover from prolonged stagnation caused by new Tax Code requirements regarding VAT refunds. Buyers are testing the domestic market with offers, but the number of transactions remains low," Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Grain Union's analytics department, said on Telegram.

He said agricultural producers were largely unwilling to lower grain prices, while exporters are reluctant to operate at a loss or at break-even levels. As a result, grain shipment volumes remain limited.

Karabanov also said military activity in Iran had completely halted barley trade, with a resumption depending on the duration of hostilities and domestic political stability in that country.

Earlier, Karabanov said Kazakh farmers could lose about 200 billion tenge in 2026 due to changes to the Tax Code that reduce VAT refund amounts for grain exporters.

Commenting previously on shipments to Iran, the analyst said barley exporters had suspended supplies to that country amid the conflict.

As of February 20, Kazakhstan had exported 6.4 million tonnes of grain since the start of the September 2025-August 2026 agricultural year, up 18.5% from the same period a year earlier, when exports totaled 5.4 million tonnes.