National Bank of Kazakhstan lowers 2026 inflation forecast to 9.5%-11.5%, maintains 3.5%-4.5% GDP growth outlook

ASTANA. March 6 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Kazakhstan has lowered its 2026 inflation forecast to 9.5%-11.5% from 9.5%-12.5%, the regulator said in a statement on Friday.

"The inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised downward. Price growth is expected in the 9.5%-11.5% range (previously 9.5%-12.5%). The National Bank expects inflation to return to single-digit levels through coordinated actions by the government and the National Bank, supported by predictable fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies, as well as a reduced contribution from housing and utility services and petroleum products to overall inflation," it said.

The regulator also said inflation was projected to slow to 5.5%-7.5% by the end of 2027, and approach its 5% target by the end of 2028.

"Inflationary risks have somewhat eased amid a moderate price response to changes in the VAT rate. Remaining risks stem mainly from domestic factors, including increases in regulated tariffs and elevated inflation expectations. Attention is also needed to the implementation of planned fiscal consolidation in 2027-2028, as well as the scale and scope of quasi-fiscal stimulus," the National Bank said.

The disinflationary effect could weaken if transfers from the National Fund and the budget deficit are not reduced in line with planned parameters, or if quasi-fiscal stimulus expands beyond expected levels, the statement said.

The National Bank maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.5%-4.5%.

"From a high base in 2025, economic activity is expected to expand at a more moderate pace in 2026 and subsequent years," the regulator said.

Inflation in Kazakhstan was 12.3% in 2025. The Economy Ministry said GDP grew 6.5% last year, compared to 4.8% in 2024.