EBRD reduces Ukraine's GDP forecast for 2026 to 2.5% from 5%

MOSCOW. Feb 26 (Interfax) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects Ukraine's real GDP to grow 2.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, assuming the crisis continues through 2026, Ukrainian media said citing the EBRD's Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report published on Thursday.

Its previous report had assumed that Ukraine's GDP might grow 5.0% in 2026.

The EBRD said Ukraine is maintaining macroeconomic stability. "Real GDP growth, slow at the start of the year, picked up strongly to 3.0% by the end of 2025, giving a whole-year figure of 2.0%," it said.

The Ukrainian economy expanded by 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter and 3.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.8% in the first half of 2025, it said.

An early 2026 peace agreement would substantially improve the outlook, although power shortages, labor constraints and weaknesses in agricultural output continue to pose notable short-term risks, the report says.