Exchange rate could be around 95 rubles/$1 by end of 2026, closer to 100 rubles/$1 under certain circumstances - Sberbank CEO Gref

MOSCOW. Feb 26 (Interfax) - The ruble is expected to weaken under current conditions, potentially reaching around 95 rubles/$1 by the end of 2026, and closer to 100 rubles/$1 under certain circumstances, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said.

"I do not see any chance of a strong ruble this year. It is simply counterproductive by every conceivable measure," Gref said during a conference call on Thursday.

Gref noted that Sberbank's official exchange rate forecast for 2026 is 85-90 rubles/$1, while his personal forecast is higher.

"Our colleagues' expectations are slightly more conservative. They think it will be somewhere around 85-90 rubles/$1. My personal expectations for the end of the year are plus or minus 95 rubles/$1, possibly closer to 100 rubles/$1 under certain circumstances. It will depend on the Central Bank's policy," Gref said.

Gref drew attention to the decline in Russia's balance of payments. "An exchange rate of 80 rubles/$1, give or take, under these parameters would be both obvious and unbelievable if it happened. Nothing could be ruled out, but it goes against everything - theory, logic, practice, and so on," he emphasized.

Furthermore, a possible reduction in the cutoff price in the fiscal rule could reduce the volume of mirroring operations, which could also lead to a weakening of the ruble, Gref added.

"Then, with these discounts and these oil prices, it should go down. The combination of these two factors should lead to the [dollar] exchange rate starting to rise as early as the second quarter. It is impossible yet to predict the rate at which it would rise," Gref said.

"But once again, if you insist on my signing this forecast in blood, I certainly would not," Gref added.