Dragon Capital projects Ukraine's electricity deficit at 10% in 2026

MOSCOW. Feb 18 (Interfax) - Dragon Capital, a leading Ukrainian private equity and financial services group, believes that the expected average annual deficit of electricity in Ukraine will reach 10% in 2026 versus 4% in 2025, Ukrainian media quoted Dragon Capital founder Tomas Fiala as saying.

According to preliminary data, Ukraine's GDP grew 1.8% in 2025, Ukrainian media quoted Fiala as saying at the 'EBA Global Outlook: Success in Adversity' event, organized by the European Business Association (EBA) in Kiev on Tuesday.

The forecast that Ukraine's GDP will grow 1% in 2026 is based on the assumption that the crisis will continue throughout the year and Ukraine will have a substantial electricity deficit, he said.

Last year's electricity deficit in Ukraine stood at 4% and is expected at the level of 10% in 2026, but a deterioration is already being recorded, including due to bad weather, he said.

Although the start is slightly worse than 10%, the situation will hopefully improve somewhat, thanks to better weather conditions and new investments in the sector, among other factors, Fiala said, adding that the weather has been quite adverse, and average air temperatures have been lower this year than in 2025, also resulting in larger electricity consumption and contributing to the deficit.

The Ukrainian budget remains properly funded due to partners' support, including approval of a European Union loan of 90 billion euros for Ukraine, Fiala said. Ukraine expects to receive more than $50 billion in external financing in 2026, which is in line with last year's level and will help gap budget holes estimated at around $50 billion.

Fiala also said he expects the hryvnia's moderate devaluation against the dollar by 3%-7%. Ukraine's 2024 tax revenues in the dollar equivalent already matched the pre-crisis levels and exceeded them in 2025, he said.

As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine projects real GDP growth at 1.8% in 2026, accelerating to 2.8% in 2027 and 3.7% in 2028. Meanwhile, the Kiev-based Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting forecasts real GDP growth in Ukraine at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.