Kazakhstan to gradually reduce oil and gas sector's share of GDP
ASTANA. Feb 17 (Interfax) - The oil and gas sector's contribution to GDP growth in Kazakhstan will decline gradually in the medium term and be offset by faster development in manufacturing and other non-resource sectors, Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin told a government meeting on Tuesday.
He said the decline would be compensated by accelerated growth in manufacturing, construction, agriculture and other sectors, and that structural changes in the economy were already evident.
Manufacturing's share of GDP increased to 12.4% in 2024 from 11.3% in 2010, while the extractive industry's share nearly halved to 12% from 19.5%. Within the extractive industry, the share of the oil and gas sector fell to 8.1% from 16.5% over the same period.
Kazakhstan ranked 55th out of 145 countries in the 2024 Economic Complexity Index. From 2020 to 2024, the country recorded the strongest structural improvement among its neighbors, rising from 87th to 55th place.
"To achieve the set goals, we need to boost investment. Under forecasts in the National Development Plan, the investment-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from the current 14%-15% to 23% by 2029. As a result, fixed capital investment in 2029 should be 2.5 times higher than in 2024," the minister said.
Zhumangarin said a gradual increase in the ratio to 23% would generate an additional $120 billion in investment, bringing cumulative investment in 2025-2029 to about $400 billion.
Priority sectors identified for development include natural resource processing and agro-industrial processing, given their stronger multiplier effect on the economy. These areas include non-ferrous and ferrous metallurgy, rare earth metals, the chemical and petrochemical industries, gas production, high- and medium-level processing of agricultural products, and pharmaceuticals.
"These projects will help raise average labor productivity, which is essential for overcoming the middle-income trap and ensuring further growth in per capita GDP," Zhumangarin said.
