National Bank of Moldova raises inflation forecast to 5% in 2026, expects slowdown to 4.5% in 2027

CHISINAU. Feb 16 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) expects average annual inflation to reach 5% in 2026 and decelerate to 4.5% in 2027, according to the regulator's latest inflation review published on its website.

The forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) has increased 0.7 percentage points for the current year and decreased 0.1 percentage points for 2027 compared to the previous review published in November.

The regulator estimates that the inflation rate should return to the target range of 4.5% + or - 1.5% starting in the first quarter of 2026 and remain close to the range until the end of the forecast period. Inflation should decline slightly in early 2027, subsequently stabilizing at the same level for the final three quarters of the year.

The review indicates that the increase in inflation expectations for 2026 is owing to higher-than-expected actual inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025, an upward revision of the short-term forecast for the first quarter of this year, and a higher forecast for international oil prices through the third quarter of 2026.

The NBM draws attention to risks that could affect these forecasts. Internal risks include uncertainty related to the timing and scale of tariff adjustments for regulated services, the vulnerability of domestic fruit and vegetable prices to weather conditions, uncertainty regarding agricultural production, and a decline in the number of consumers residing in Moldova.

External risks include geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the prospects for a settlement of the situation in Ukraine, cuts in government spending in the eurozone, fragmentation of international trade, and rising prices for gold and other precious metals.

As reported, the NBM on February 5 maintained its base rate at 5% per annum. Early last year, the NBM had to raise the rate sharply from 3.6% pa to 6.5% pa, seeking to minimize the effect of rising energy prices on inflation after the regulator had reduced the base rate in several steps from 4.75% pa to 3.6% pa during 2024. The NBM gradually reduced the rate to 5% pa during 2025.

Inflation in Moldova was 6.84% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the country's inflation rate at 5% in 2026.