Russian economy will slow in H1, recovery expected in late 2026 or more likely in 2027 - Reshetnikov

MOSCOW. Feb 12 (Interfax) - The Russian economy will continue to slow in the first half of 2026 and is expected to recover at the end of this year in the best-case scenario, but more likely in 2027, Economy Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said in his speech at a meeting of the State Duma Economic Policy Committee on Thursday.

He said that the ministry would publish its three-year macroeconomic forecast in March.

"We must understand that whatever decisions are made now [regarding monetary policy], they will have a lag in their impact on the economy, estimated at 6-9 months, sometimes longer. Therefore, we expect a further economic slowdown in the first half of the year. Growth will recover at best by the end of 2026, but most likely in 2027," Reshetnikov said.

"We will update our estimates for this year and the planning period as part of preparing the forecast scenarios in March, when the situation and the order of external factors will be clearer," Reshetnikov noted.

Reshetnikov said that the natural price for reducing inflation is a slowdown not only in the economy overall, but foremost in investment.

"Investment grew 0.5% in the first nine months of 2025, but I think we will see a decline in real investment throughout the year, which is predictable and understandable," the minister said.

The Economic Development Ministry in September forecast Russia's GDP to grow 1.3% in 2026.

The Central Bank expects GDP to rise between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2026.

Analysts surveyed by Interfax in late December forecast an increase of 1.2% in GDP in 2026.