USDA lowers its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in 2025-2026 MY by 1 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. Feb 11 (Interfax) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its February 2026 report lowered its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 Marketing Year (July 2025-June 2026) by 4.35%, or by 1 million tonnes to 22 million tonnes but kept its Ukraine wheat export estimate unchanged at 14 million tonnes, Ukrainian media said, citing the USDA report.

USDA also left its forecast for Ukraine's harvest of key crops in the 2025-2026 MY unchanged, including at 23 million tonnes of wheat, and at 29 million tonnes for corn. At the same time, USDA raised its estimate for ending corn stocks to 1.65 million tonnes (+0.8 million tonnes, or +94.12%) but reduced it for ending wheat stocks to 1.63 million tonnes (-0.3 million tonnes, or -15.54%).

According to USDA, it modified its outlook for Ukrainian corn export potential due to the situation on the global market.

Corn exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 MY are lowered by 1 million tonnes to 22 million tonnes in light of expectations that tighter global competition and lower supply will result in smaller shipping volumes, according to the USDA report.

USDA projects global wheat production in the 2025-2026 MY at 841.8 million tonnes (-0.37 million tonnes), global wheat exports at 221.96 million tonnes (+2.2 million tonnes), and global wheat ending stocks at 277.51 million tonnes (-1.93 million tonnes).

At the same time, USDA cut its forecast for global corn production in the 2025-2026 MY by 0.1 million tonnes to 1.296 million tonnes, raised it for global corn exports by 1.44 million tonnes to 206.55 million tonnes, lowering it for global corn ending stocks by 1.93 million tonnes to 288.98 million tonnes.