Analysts raise Russian 2026 inflation forecast to 5.3%, GDP growth and key rate expectations unchanged - Central Bank survey

MOSCOW. Feb 4 (Interfax) - Analysts have raised their inflation forecast for Russia in 2026 to 5.3% from the 5.1% they were predicting in December, according to the latest Central Bank survey.

The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is unchanged at 1.1%, compared with 0.9% growth predicted for 2025.

The average key rate forecast for 2026 is unchanged at 14.1% - the 2025 forecast was 19.2%.

The inflation forecast for 2027 was raised to 4.1% from 4.0%, the average key rate forecast was raised to 10.4% from 10.3% and the GDP growth forecast remains 1.7%.

The inflation forecast for 2028 is unchanged at 4.0%, the average key rate forecast was raised to 9.0% from 8.9% and the GDP growth forecast remains 1.8%.

The neutral rate forecast is unchanged at 8.0%.

Analysts now forecast the average annual dollar exchange rate at 85.0 rubles/$1 in 2026, previously 90.3 rubles/$1, at 94.5 rubles/$1 in 2027, previously 97.6 rubles/$1, and at 98.9 rubles/$1 in 2028, previously 102.0 rubles/$1.

Expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes have been lowered to $50 from $54 per barrel in 2026 and to $56 from $57 per barrel in 2027, and are unchanged at $60 per barrel in 2028.

The latest survey of 30 economists was conducted from January 30 - February 3.