Ukraine's 2025 balance of payments sees surplus of $12.8 bln - National Bank of Ukraine

MOSCOW. Feb 2 (Interfax) - Ukraine's consolidated balance of payments in 2025 was drawn up with a surplus of $12.8 billion, compared to a zero surplus in 2024 and a $9.5 billion surplus in 2023, Ukrainian media reported citing the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

At the same time, according to the NBU, last year also saw a record current account deficit of $31.9 billion, or 14.9% of GDP, compared to a $15.2 billion deficit (8.0% of GDP) in 2024 and a $9.34 billion deficit in 2023.

"The deficit grew primarily due to an increase in the negative balance of trade in goods (because of a significant increase in imports amid a moderate decline in exports) and a deficit in primary income (due to a simultaneous decline in wage receipts and an increase in investment income payments). At the same time, the volume of grant aid from international partners increased," the NBU said.

Without reinvested incomes and grants from international partners accounted for, the deficit amounted to $43.5 billion, compared to $23.8 billion in 2024, it said.

Exports of goods and services from Ukraine decreased by 4.2% in 2025 (compared to a 9.7% increase in 2024), while imports increased by 16.4% (increased by 6.9% in 2024).

In particular, exports of goods last year decreased by 2.7% (compared to a 12.3% increase in 2024), or by $1.0 billion, to $38.3 billion.

The decline was due almost entirely to a decline in food exports by 8.7% (compared to a 12.1% increase in 2024), the NBU said. A significant reduction in exports of cereals by 22.8% and oilseeds by 30.4% was only partially offset by an increase in exports of oils and fats by 11.0%, meat and dairy products by 21.9%, and food industry products by 4.7%. Exports of minerals also went down by 7.2% (compared to a 38.9% increase in 2024), including those of ores by 17.3%, it said.

Imports of goods in 2025 grew by 23.5%, or $17.0 billion, to $89.3 billion (compared to a 10.6% increase in 2024). This increase in overall imports was driven primarily by non-energy imports, which grew by 24.2%, or $15.4 billion, after growing 15.2% in 2024.

The deficit in trading services remained at the 2024 level ($5.8 billion), as exports and imports of services declined at comparable rates, 7.7% and 5.9%, respectively, the NBU said.

Private remittances decreased by 14.7% to $8.0 billion in 2025. Wages received by Ukrainians from abroad were down 15.6%, while other private transfers received through official channels declined by only 0.6%. Overall, according to NBU estimates, 7.3% fewer transfers were sent through official channels in 2025 than in 2024, while the flow through informal channels went down 25.0% in this period.

Net borrowing from the outside world in 2025, i.e. the combined balance of the current account and capital account, totaled $31.6 billion, up from $10.1 billion in 2024.

Net payments to the International Monetary Fund in 2025 totaled $1.4 billion, compared to net borrowings of $2.9 billion in 2024, the NBU said.

Net inflow of foreign direct investment in 2025 is estimated at $2.4 billion, including $1.0 billion in reinvested incomes, down from $3.7 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, in 2024.

The NBU pointed out that, as of January 1, 2026, Ukraine's international reserves stood at $57.3 billion, which is enough for financing imports for 5.8 months.

As reported, the NBU recently downgraded its forecast of a current account deficit to $37.2 billion from $35.3 billion in 2026, and to $41.6 billion from $38.4 billion in 2027. At the same time, it increased its estimate of international reserves to $65 billion from $52.2 billion at the end of 2026 and to $72.9 billion from $59.2 billion for 2027