Central Bank of Russia reminds about priority of monthly data amid surge in inflation in first half of Jan

MOSCOW. Jan 23 (Interfax) - Drawing conclusions about price dynamics at the beginning of the year will be possible after the release of complete data for January, Central Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said.

"Regarding January inflation, the Central Bank of Russia noted at the end of last year that a number of one-off factors, namely VAT, tariff indexation, and excise tax increases, would result in a temporary acceleration in price growth at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, the board of directors has considered these factors when reaching decisions on the rate. However, it is important to await the release of complete monthly data in order to draw conclusions about price dynamics at the beginning of the year," Zabotkin posted on the Central Bank's Telegram channel.

Zabotkin said that there is currently no reason to believe that Russia's economy has approached the Central Bank's pro-inflationary scenario in recent months.

Zabotkin recalled that the regulator's forecast for 2026 assumes further monetary policy easing. The average rate in 2026, according to the CBR's October forecast, is projected in the range of 13%-15%.

"The key rate has been reduced from 21% to 16%, and our forecast assumes it will fall further during 2026. But inflation is still above the target, not to mention inflation expectations, which have generally not decreased significantly yet. Therefore, it is premature to talk about it already being time to return to neutral monetary policy," Zabotkin said.

The Central Bank estimates the long-term level of the neutral rate in the range of 7.5%-8.5%.

There was a sharp rise in prices in the first weeks of 2026. Inflation was 1.26% from January 1 to 12, 2026, with annual inflation accelerating to 6.26%. Price growth was 0.45% from January 13 to 19, 2026, with the annual rate reaching 6.46%.

Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data indicate that there should be inflation of 5.59% in 2025 following 9.52% in 2024, 7.42% in 2023, 11.94% in 2022, 8.39% in 2021, 4.9% in 2020, and 3.0% in 2019.