Russia's MinFin questions reliability of early inflation data, calls for assessment based on monthly figures

MOSCOW. Jan 21 (Interfax) - Weekly inflation data in Russia at the start of the year can often be volatile and noisy, so it will only be possible to draw conclusions, including about the impact of the value-added tax hike, after monthly figures are released, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said.

"Weekly data are fairly volatile, there can be various noises there, especially in the first week of the year. This has often been the case. Therefore, we need to look at the subsequent weeks, look at the month, where the sample of goods and services is far broader, and voice any of our thoughts and take any action based on this," Kolychev told reporters when asked about the high inflation in early January and the validity of the current forecast for 2026.

Asked about the impact of the VAT increase on price growth, he said it is also premature to make assessments about this.

"According to the table that Rosstat published, [the price growth at the start of January] to a large degree concerned food products, which are exempt from the increase of the VAT and [utility] service rates. While for non-food goods, I think their rate [of price growth] did not differ greatly from the usual rate. We'll need to look carefully at the monthly figures," Kolychev said.

Rosstat reported earlier that inflation in Russia was 1.26% in the period from January 1 to 12, 2026 (the data period was almost twice as long as the usual week due to the holidays), compared to 0.62% in the first 12 days of January 2025 and 1.23% in all of January last year. Based on these data, annual inflation accelerated to 6.26% as of January 12 from 5.59% at the end of December 2025 against the backdrop of the VAT increasing from 20% to 22% on January 1.

The Central Bank of Russia's inflation forecast for 2026 is 4-5%, while the Economic Development Ministry's forecast from last September projects that inflation will slow to 4.0% in 2026.

The consensus forecast of economists polled by Interfax at the end of December is that inflation will be 5.1% in 2026.