National Bank of Ukraine keeps its power shortage estimate at 5%-6% for Q1 2026

MOSCOW. Dec 12 (Interfax) - The situation in Ukraine's energy sector is close to the estimates contained in the Inflation Report released by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in late October, when the bank cut its GDP growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points for 2025 and by 0.2 percentage points for 2026, citing this factor, NBU Deputy Governor Vladimir Lepushinsky said.

"Of course, we have yet to get through December, and we will be able then to more accurately assess the impact on GDP. However, the way the situation is developing for now is close to our estimates," Ukrainian media quoted Lepushinsky as saying at a press briefing in Kiev.

"We estimate power shortages at around 5%-6% in the first quarter. We stick to this figure for now," he said.

In January, the NBU will calculate the actual data, because the risks are high, he said.

"They were also taken into consideration when the decision on the key policy rate was made today," Lepushinsky said.

When asked about the risk of lower exports, Lepushinsky said that Ukrainian exports are lagging behind today mainly due to the late harvesting campaign because of adverse weather conditions.

"No critical processes are being observed now. We'll see how the situation unfolds and we'll present our new macro-forecast as soon as January," he said.

Another NBU deputy governor, Yury Gelety, said at the press briefing that Ukraine's earnings from exports grew 1.5% to $45.6 billion in January-November 2025 versus a 20% increase in 2024.

As reported, in late October the NBU worsened its power shortage forecast for in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to 4%-6%, having estimated it as around 1% at the end of July this year.

"The estimate of electricity shortages for 2026 has been raised to 3% on average for the year. According to the NBU's estimates, such a widening of the electricity deficit will slow GDP growth by approximately 0.1 pp in 2025, and by 0.2 pp in 2026," the NBU's October Inflation Report said.

According to a chart in the report, if in July the NBU expected power shortages in Q4 2025 and in Q1 2026 at 2%, now these figures stand at 4% and 6%, respectively, compared with 1% in Q3 this year.

The NBU expects the country's power shortage to drop to 3% in Q2 2026 and to 1% in Q3 2026, subsequently growing to 3% in Q4 2026 and to 2% in Q1 2027.

Overall, the NBU cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1%, citing power shortages, damage to gas production facilities and workforce shortages, also reducing it from 2.3% to 2% for 2026.