Russian wheat may gain advantage on global market due to quality - experts

MOSCOW. Dec 8 (Interfax) - Russian wheat may gain an advantage on the global market due to higher quality despite increased grain supply from competitor countries in the Southern Hemisphere, experts from the Agroexport federal center said.

In recent months Argentina and Australia have reported improved prospects for the wheat harvest in the 2025-2026 season, Agroexport said. For example, in its December report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised its wheat production forecast to 35.6 million tonnes, which is 1.5 million tonnes more than was harvested the previous season.

Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) increased its wheat harvest forecast to a record 25.5 million tonnes due to higher-than-expected yields in some regions. This is 6.9 million tonnes more than in the past season.

This situation is putting pressure on wheat quotations in the global market. At the same time, despite the record harvest, market participants note that a lot of wheat with low protein content is coming from Argentine fields - around 9%-10% compared to the Argentine export standard of 11.5%, the center said.

In connection with this, a noticeable difference in quality spreads between Argentine and Russian wheat is being recorded. In Argentina, the price difference is $15-$20 per tonne, and $3-$5 per tonne in Russia.

"The Southern Hemisphere harvest will in any case put pressure on the global wheat market. However, if the situation with the quality of Argentine grain remains unchanged, demand for Russian wheat may increase," the experts said.

As reported, according to data from the Federal Center for Assessing the Safety and Quality of Agricultural Products (TsOK APK), the quality of the 2025 wheat harvest in Russia is higher than last year. This is shown by the results of state monitoring conducted in 67 regions of the country. The share of grade 3 wheat at the beginning of November was 30.5% compared to 29% a year earlier. The share of grade 4 wheat decreased to 47.3% from 48% and grade 5 to 22% from 23%, respectively. A small amount of grade 1 and grade 2 wheat was also identified. Overall, the share of food wheat (grades 1-4) is 78% compared to 77% in 2024.