AEB allows for possibility of Russian automobile market's 2025 growth exceeding forecast of 1.28 mln units amid stimulus from scrappage fee, VAT

MOSCOW. Nov 7 (Interfax) - The Association of European Businesses (AEB), which slightly raised its estimates for the growth of the Russian automobile market a month ago in anticipation of its revival, has allowed for the possibility that its latest annual forecast of 1.28 million sold new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) could be exceeded.

According to previously published data from the Industry and Trade Ministry, the market for new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia in October amounted to 175,899 units (-4.8% year-on-year and +34.2% month-on-month), breaking upwards through the level of 120,000 units where it had been for all three months of Q3. Sales of passenger cars and LCVs decreased 19.8% in 10M 2025 to 1.141 million units. The AEB, which assesses the market based on the same electronic vehicle passport registration data, provided comparable dynamics in its press release published on Friday.

A month ago, the association slightly improved its forecast for the automobile market this year, raising it from 1.25 million units to 1.28 million units. However, at the beginning of the year the forecast was noticeably more optimistic, at 1.4 million units. The market amounted to 1.65 million units in 2024. In any case, a decrease is therefore expected this year.

"As forecasted, amid expectations of an increase in the scrappage fee, the automobile market showed explosive growth in October 2025 compared to the previous month (+35%). At the same time, it still has not reached the level of the same period last year (-6%). The postponement of the date for the extraordinary increase in the scrappage fee as well as the possible increase in VAT in 2026 will most likely remain good incentives for purchasing a new car in November as well. It can now be said with a high degree of confidence that the sales results of new passenger and light commercial vehicles in 2025 may exceed our previously announced forecast of 1.28 million units, but will still be lower than last year's results," the AEB's press service quoted the head of the association's manufacturers committee Alexei Kalitsev as saying.

During an online broadcast on the results of the Russian automobile market in October and for 10M 2025 the day before, the director of Avtostat Sergei Tselikov highlighted a number of reasons that stimulated the growth of new car sales in October.

"First, it is the reduction of the key rate and accordingly, a more substantial decrease in deposit interest rates. People are now thinking about whether to keep money in deposits at 13%-14% per annum or if this is a good moment to invest somewhere. Furthermore, at the beginning of the year there was the concept of 'wait-and-see buyers' [potential buyers who were waiting for the return of foreign brands that left Russia]. Now, everyone probably understands that there is nothing to wait for. And some of the wait-and-see buyers are purchasing through parallel imports - the share of parallel imports, which fluctuated at around 6%-7%, increased to 12% in October. I do not rule out that in November it could be higher," Tselikov said.

The sales growth in October was made possible, in particular, due to the pent-up demand that formed during the less successful months for the market, he said.

"You have now re-entered the demand corridor of 120,000-160,000 cars, even temporarily 'breaking through' its upper limit. If we look at the previous months, we will see a dip that formed from January to July. This is pent-up demand, which, like a spring, pushed the market upward. The trigger for this was definitely the scrappage fee and its very substantial PR support: all media outlets were proclaiming from the rooftops that the scrappage fee would be increased, prices would soar and so on. In the first half of the year, the principal mindset for people was 'why buy now - it will be cheaper tomorrow,' and everyone put their purchases on hold. Now the mindset is: 'I need to buy now - it will be more expensive tomorrow, and some things will be much more expensive,'" Tselikov said.

Top ten best-selling passenger car brands in Russia in October and 10M 2025, thousand units (data from Avtostat)

No Model October 2025 October 2024 Change 10M 2025 10M 2024 Change Market share, 10M 2025 Market share, 10M 2024 1 Lada 33,251 44,812 -25,8% 270,957 361,382 -25,0% 25,5% 27,3% 2 Haval 26,125 23,801 +9,8% 135,841 160,186 -15,2% 12,8% 12,1% 3 Geely 14,238 17,163 -17,0% 76,637 129,929 -41,0% 7,2% 9,8% 4 Belgee 10,780 4,346 +148,0% 51,276 29,313 +74,9% 4,8% 2,2% 5 Tenet 8,632 - - 11,366 - - 1,1% 0,00% 6 Chery 6,566 15,140 -56,6% 94,440 133,469 -29,2% 8,9% 10,1% 7 Changan 6,369 10,973 -42,0% 57,044 94,043 -39,3% 5,4% 7,1% 8 Solaris 5,809 2,140 +171,4% 27,311 11,974 +128,1% 2,6% 0,9% 9 Toyota 4,165 3,516 +18,5% 21,387 17,079 +25,2% 2% 1,3% 10 Omoda 3,427 4,186 -18,1% 25,699 43,782 -41,3% 2,4% 3,3% - TOTAL IN RUSSIA 165,702 171,175 -3,2% 1061,625 1325,923 -19,9% 100% 100,00%

Top ten best-selling passenger car models in Russia in October and for 10M 2025, thousand units (data from Avtostat)

No Model October 2025 October 2024 Change 10M 2025 10M 2024 Change Market share, 10M 2025 Market share, 10M 2024 1 Lada Granta 15,183 21,199 -28,4% 121,216 170,128 -28,8% 11,4% 12,8% 2 Haval Jolion 9,229 11,387 -19,0% 53,167 73,533 -27,7% 5% 5,6% 3 Lada Vesta 7,453 11,335 -34,2% 69,341 105,118 -34,0% 6,5% 7,9% 4 Geely Monjaro 6,435 5,202 +23,7% 30,904 41,754 -26,0% 2,9% 3,2% 5 Haval M6 6,203 3,662 +69,4% 27,384 31,635 -13,4% 2,6% 2,4% 6 Belgee X70 5,399 1,128 +378,6% 19,525 1,926 +913,8% 1,8% 0,2% 7 Tenet T4 4,296 - - 5,435 - - 0,5% 0,0% 8 Belgee X50 4,210 3,218 +30,8% 30,543 27,387 +11,5% 2,9% 2,1% 9 Lada Niva Legend 3,729 4,930 -24,4% 27,996 39,208 -28,6% 2,6% 3% 10 Tenet T7 3,638 - - 4,936 - - 0,5% 0,0% - TOTAL IN RUSSIA 165,702 171 175 -3,2% 1061, 625 1325,923 -19,9% 100,00% 100,00%