Nabiullina: Russian economy will exit state of overheating in H1 2026

MOSCOW. Oct 24 (Interfax) - The current dynamics of the Russian economy have led to a downward revision of the Central Bank of Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2025; nevertheless, the exit from the state of overheating will occur no earlier than H1 2026.

"The economy, according to our estimates, will exit the state of overheating in the first half of next year. Taking into account its actual dynamics, we have lowered the GDP growth forecast for this year to 0.5%-1%. In the following years, GDP growth will accelerate," Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference following the CBR board of directors meeting.

On Friday, the Central Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 to 0.5%-1.0% from 1.0%-2.0% in the July version of the forecast. The forecast for GDP dynamics in Q4 2025 was reduced to minus 0.5% - plus 0.5% in annual terms from growth of 0%-1.0% in the July version.

At the same time, the forecasts for Russian GDP growth in 2026 remained unchanged compared to the July version - in the range of 0.5%-1.5%, and 1.5%-2.5% in 2027 and 1.5%-2.5% in 2028.

As reported, according to the Economic Development Ministry's estimate, Russia's GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in August 2025 after also rising 0.4% in July, 1.0% in June, 0.7% in May, 1.5% in April, 1.1% in March, 0.5% in February and 2.7% in January. According to the Economic Development Ministry's calculations, Russian GDP grew 1.0% YoY in January-August 2025.

In September, the Economic Development Ministry lowered its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2025 to 1.0% from 2.5% in the April version, and reduced it to 1.3% in 2026 from 2.4%.

Analysts polled by Interfax in early October forecast an increase in Russian GDP in 2025 of 1.0% and of 1.4% in 2026.